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Zaviyebeta
ZV-SCNDESK

Signposts

The scenario desk.

For each live situation: the paths it could take, the evidence that would show which one is opening, and a plain-language state — quiet, watching, lit, or no reading. Never a computed probability.

  • Who sets the rules in Hormuz

    Does Iran's announced restricted zone near the Strait of Hormuz turn into a halt of commercial traffic, an Oman-brokered shipping arrangement, or does harassment continue at the current tempo, before 31 Oct 2026?

    Horizon 2026-10-31 · reviewed 2026-09-17

    • Restricted zone enforced against commercial trafficHighly unlikely (5-20%)
      1 of 2 signposts lit

      evidence tally — not a probability

    • Oman-hosted Iran-Gulf shipping arrangementUnlikely (20-45%)
      1 of 2 signposts lit

      evidence tally — not a probability

    • Harassment at current tempoLikely (55-80%)
      0 of 1 signposts lit

      evidence tally — not a probability

    Forecasts on the record: 2 open, 0 resolved — too few resolved to judge. Track record →

  • The southern Lebanon front

    UNDER REVIEW

    Does Israel-Hezbollah fighting stay a contained border exchange, widen to strikes on Beirut/Dahiyeh/Bekaa or a ground push, or move toward a political/mediated track, before 31 Oct 2026?

    Horizon 2026-10-31 · reviewed 2026-09-17

    • Wider campaignUnlikely (20-45%)
      0 of 3 signposts lit

      evidence tally — not a probability

    • Political/mediated trackHighly unlikely (5-20%)
      1 of 2 signposts lit

      evidence tally — not a probability

    • Contained border exchangeLikely (55-80%)
      0 of 1 signposts lit

      evidence tally — not a probability

    Forecasts on the record: 1 open, 0 resolved — too few resolved to judge. Track record →

  • The US threat against Iran's Pickaxe Mountain site

    Does the US or Israel strike Iran's Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site, does the coercive standoff continue without a strike, or does a diplomatic/IAEA track open, before 30 Nov 2026?

    Horizon 2026-11-30 · reviewed 2026-09-17

    • A strike on the nuclear facilityHighly unlikely (5-20%)
      0 of 4 signposts lit

      evidence tally — not a probability

    • Talks or IAEA access reopenUnlikely (20-45%)
      no evaluable signposts yet

      evidence tally — not a probability

    • Coercive pressure without a strikeLikely (55-80%)
      1 of 1 signposts lit

      evidence tally — not a probability

    Forecasts on the record: 1 open, 0 resolved — too few resolved to judge. Track record →

  • The Houthi-Saudi front and the Red Sea

    UNDER REVIEW

    Between 17 Sep and 16 Dec 2026, does the Houthi campaign against Saudi Arabia stay contained, become a sustained war on Saudi energy, reopen a Red Sea shipping front, or wind down through the Oman channel?

    Horizon 2026-12-16 · reviewed 2026-09-17

    • Widening to Gulf energy and shippingUnlikely (20-45%)
      1 of 5 signposts lit

      evidence tally — not a probability

    • Mediated pauseHighly unlikely (5-20%)
      0 of 1 signposts lit

      evidence tally — not a probability

    • Contained exchangeLikely (55-80%)
      0 of 1 signposts lit

      evidence tally — not a probability

    Forecasts on the record: 2 open, 0 resolved — too few resolved to judge. Track record →